Deep Tech Future
A public, falsifiable ledger of frontier-tech claims.
Deep Tech Future keeps a public ledger of dated claims about frontier-tech results, starting with brain-computer interfaces. Each call has a source, a resolution criterion, a resolution date and a probability, and every miss stays on the record.
Frontier tech is full of confident claims and short on scorekeeping.
Press releases promise channel counts, words per minute and trial dates. Months later, nobody checks.
Deep Tech Future writes each claim down with a date and a probability, then checks.
How it works
Build the corpus
Results, organisations and trials, each entry with typed links and its evidence.
Open a call
A dated claim with a resolution criterion and a probability. The subject is told before the call opens.
Audit the evidence
Recompute published results from the papers, with notebooks anyone can rerun.
Resolve and score
Calls resolve on their date and the ledger keeps a running Brier score, misses included.
What makes it different
Misses are shown
A forecaster who hides misses is not forecasting. The scoreboard counts every call.
Subjects are told first
Every organisation named in a call gets a note before the call goes public.
Adversarial review
Every draft is reviewed by an adversarial reader before anything is published.
Where it stands
In development, as of October 2026.
Built
- The corpus schema, the ledger renderer and the editorial policy.
- The first 20 calls, an evidence audit and a methods note, in draft.
Now
- Final review before the first public posts.
Next
- Publishing the ledger, then a call a week and the first commissioned briefs.